Memory prices keep climbing into 4Q26 as AI servers crowd out PCs and phones

Contract prices for DRAM and NAND flash are set to rise again in the fourth quarter of 2026, even as consumer PC and smartphone buyers push back on cost, according to TrendForce’s latest memory outlook published September 30.

The Taipei research firm projects conventional DRAM contract prices to increase 10% to 15% quarter over quarter in 4Q26, and overall NAND Flash contracts to rise 15% to 20%. Asia Business Daily, citing the same TrendForce announcement, reported that DRAM including high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to climb 15% to 20% QoQ—wider than TrendForce’s 3Q blended DRAM-plus-HBM range—while the pace of conventional DRAM and NAND gains moderates from third-quarter forecasts.

The driver is not a broad consumer boom. TrendForce says suppliers are still steering advanced-process wafers toward server DRAM and HBM, leaving the market undersupplied overall. Cloud service providers and server OEMs are adding RDIMM bits for general servers that support agentic AI workloads. Some suppliers’ server DRAM price increases will lag the market average because of long-term agreement (LTA) pricing clauses.

Enterprise SSDs are the standout. TrendForce’s September 24 forecast abstract says hyperscalers are raising orders for QLC enterprise SSDs used for KV cache and inference storage, with enterprise SSD contract prices expected to surge 23% to 28% QoQ in 4Q26—the only major category TrendForce flags as accelerating versus the prior quarter. The firm’s September 30 press release says enterprise SSD bit demand is projected to grow more than 80% year over year in 2026 as CSPs expand AI inference.

Consumer-facing categories tell a different story. PC OEMs are sitting on finished-goods and channel inventory and cutting SSD capacities in mainstream notebooks to protect bill-of-materials costs, TrendForce said, prompting more flexible NAND pricing on client SSDs. Smartphone brands lean on existing eMMC/UFS stock and buy only minimum volumes. NAND wafer prices have hit historical highs that retail channels struggle to absorb, limiting further wafer gains even as overall NAND contracts still rise on the enterprise mix.

Spot markets are not mirroring the contract outlook this week. In a September 30 Insights note, TrendForce said mainstream DDR4 spot chips averaged $46.32 on September 29, up 0.93% week over week, while 512Gb TLC wafer spot quotes fell 2.45% to $19.396. Holidays and cautious buyers kept trading thin. Contract and spot are diverging: the 4Q26 story is about locked OEM/CSP deals and capacity allocation, not a hot open market in late September.

Supplier commentary on Wednesday reinforced the squeeze narrative without restating TrendForce’s exact QoQ ranges. Micron Technology, reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30, said DRAM prices rose in the high teens sequentially and NAND prices about 30%, on tight industry conditions. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said memory and storage supply-demand should be much tighter in calendar 2027 and 2028 than in 2026, that Micron has completed agreements for the vast majority of calendar 2027 HBM bits at significant year-over-year price increases, and that more than 75% of 2027 output is already committed. Separately, on September 29 TrendForce raised its 2027 HBM price outlook, projecting blended ASP up 121% year over year as HBM and conventional DRAM compete for the same advanced wafers.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have not yet issued September on-record 4Q26 contract guidance; Korean third-quarter earnings are expected in October. Until those calls, the cleanest named 4Q26 percentage ranges remain TrendForce’s—and the clearest supplier confirmation of sustained tightness is Micron’s.

For CSPs and AI server builders, the cost is still going up and capacity is already spoken for. For PC and phone OEMs, the squeeze is structural: every wafer pulled into HBM and enterprise SSD is one less for commodity DDR and client NAND, even when spot buyers step back.